Methodological note:
This analysis covers only NC contracts confirmed in our tracker — the full universe is larger and unknown.
We measure enrollment trends before vs. after each plan’s own NC effective date.
Enrollment change is reported neutrally — lower enrollment after going NC
may or may not reflect the carrier’s intent.
The Central Question
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Question 1 — Were NC Plans Systematically Different from Commissionable Plans?
For each carrier, NC plans are compared to commissionable plans from the same organization.
A significant difference suggests NC was applied selectively. No difference suggests a blanket channel decision.
“Supports” = NC plans were richer or had lower MOOP than peers, consistent with targeting expensive products.
“Contradicts” = NC plans were leaner.
Question 2 — What Actually Happened to Enrollment?
Enrollment change in the 12 months after going NC, reported without editorial framing.
By Plan Size
Plan size is the strongest predictor of enrollment outcome after NC.
Smaller plans depend more on broker distribution and have fewer direct-channel alternatives.
Whether this is a problem depends on what the carrier intended.
By Plan Size and Cohort Year
Tests whether NC impact is concentrated in specific size bands or cohort years.
By Carrier
Statistical Summary
Benefit Richness vs. Enrollment Change
If carriers went NC to suppress enrollment in expensive plans, richer plans should show larger enrollment declines.
A flat trend line means benefit richness did not predict post-NC enrollment behavior.
X = Benefit Richness Score · Y = Enrollment change % in 12 months after NC
Cost Protection Score vs. Enrollment Change
Plans with higher cost protection (lower MOOP, lower deductibles) are more expensive per member to operate.
Did carriers target high-cost-protection plans for NC?
X = Cost Protection Score · Y = Enrollment change % after NC
Enrollment Trend by Cohort
Each line = average enrollment indexed to 100 at the NC date.
The 2025 cohort has the most post-NC history and is the most reliable indicator.
Individual Plan Enrollment — Before and After NC
Gray = pre-NC · Teal = post-NC · Dashed line = NC effective date